Group risks

Group risk

Development 2023

Control measures

A. Infrastructure:
The risk that the implementation of the timetable and the realisation of our ambitions will be negatively affected by infrastructure bottlenecks.

2023: E7 (dark red)
2022: E6 (red)
2021: E6 (red)

The (demonstrable) quality of infrastructure is under pressure and infrastructure projects cannot be realised or are delayed, partly due to staff shortages at our contractors. Pressure on the existing infrastructure is growing. This is reflected, for example, in the temporary speed restriction on the high-speed line near Rijpwetering, issues with track stability, demonstrable safe usability of the tracks and the many (lengthy) withdrawals from service. In addition, too many ambitions that do not fit together are 'stacked’ due to nitrogen, staff shortages at contractors, budget issues, ERTMS, etc.

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We coordinate measures for removing future infrastructure bottlenecks within the Medium-Term Process with ProRail and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

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NS is in talks with ProRail (including the joint Executive Boards) at all levels and covering all periods.  

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We influence the planning of service disruptions to limit passenger inconvenience.

B. Turnover indexation gap:
The risk of the indexation gap widening from 2025 onwards, due to NS not being allowed/able to raise fares in line with inflation and not being compensated for this, or only in part.

2023: D7 (red)
2022: D7 (red) 
2021: D7 (red)

Sales developed better than expected in 2023, partly due to an overall increase in travel. However, passenger kilometres are still lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. One major cause is that it has become common practice for many people to work from home at least one day a week. In addition, many people's purchasing power has decreased, leading them to travel less.
To remain financially sound as a company and continue our ability to make long-term investments, we need to keep our fares in line with cost increases and reduce our costs where possible (see also risk 3 regarding costs).
From a societal point of view, we very well understand there is political pressure to limit the increase of train fares. After all, we want to keep public transport affordable for everyone. In business terms, however, this is a risk. This is why the government will need to make a financial contribution if train fares are allowed to follow inflation only to a limited extent. The government has made this contribution available for 2024. However, it is uncertain whether it will continue to do so for the years beyond.

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We conduct research on an ongoing basis to improve our insight into travel behaviour (customer behaviour), draw up passenger forecasts (customer demand) and understand customer opinion (customer value). These insights help us increase the added value for our customers.  

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With the introduction of NS Voordeel, we are make our product more affordable and are also trying to attract additional off-peak passengers.  

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NS is consulting with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management on the dilemma of keeping train travel affordable, on the one hand, and retaining our financial health, on the other, in order to continue to serve our passengers in the future and make the necessary investments to keep the Netherlands mobile.

C. Costs:
Risk of train product becoming unaffordable due to sharp increase in costs.

2023: D7 (red)
2022: E6 (red)
2021: E6 (red)

The costs of salaries, rolling stock, materials, components and financing continued to increase in 2023 due to inflation and rising interest rates.

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Tight monitoring of savings initiatives.  

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Additional savings targets, as part of agreements for the new main rail network franchise.  

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Energy costs are covered until 31 December 2024.  

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The new energy contract signifies the start of efforts to also cover energy costs for 2025 and beyond.  

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Agreements to mitigate any sharp increases in certain costs. 

D. Staff shortage:
The risk that we do not have enough skilled and healthy employees.

2023: D6 (red)
2022: F6 (dark red)
2021: C5 (yellow) 

Labour market shortages are slightly decreasing and we are also witnessing a slightly higher outflow and transfer of employees in specific target groups. Sickness absence remains high, partly due to increased workload. This risk has decreased slightly in 2023, as we have improved our operations accordingly.

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Limit staff outflow through better retention policies (including later retirement, flexibility of rosters) and focus on employee experience and enhanced vitality.  

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Increase inflow through employer branding, proactive recruitment and further scaling up of training capacity.  

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More robust timetable, allowing us to deal with shortages better and more predictably.  

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Adjust the deployment model, in consultation with social partners, with measures for the long term.  

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Third TechniekFabriek opened in the south of the Netherlands.  

E. ERTMS:
The risk that the implementation of ERTMS in line with the programme decision is not feasible due to the inability to realise the necessary changes in time, combined with undue inconvenience for passengers.

D6

In 2023, ERTMS deployment proved to be more complex than anticipated, partly due to the many dependencies between technical and operational adjustments required for the introduction of ERTMS at NS, other carriers and the infrastructure manager. 

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The ERTMS programme directorate, NS, ProRail and the other transport operators are working on an alternative test track section (instead of the Hanze Line) to create one that is feasible for NS with less inconvenience to passengers.   

F. Sickness absence due to mental issues:
The risk of psychosocial complaints.

2023: E5 (red) 
2022: E5 (red)   
2021: E4 (yellow) 

Sickness absence figures are showing a positive development in the form of a decreasing trend. Long-term absenteeism remains the biggest challenge for NS, partly caused by line manager issues, personal development and undesirable behaviour. We can also identify a societal cause, reflected in a rising trend of psychosocial complaints nationwide.   

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Monitor the follow-up of results and actions in response to MBO 2022 and NS-wide in-depth risk analyses (RI&Es PSA).   

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Training of line managers in timely recognition and response to psychosocial complaints.   

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Reporting on psychological absence with Arbo Unie to enable targeted (collective) actions.   

G. Cyber threat:
The risk of a cyber attack due to mounting threat and because NS fails to meet the compliance or security requirements for IT or OT (= IT on and around the train).

2023: C6 (red)
2022: C6 (red)
2021: C6 (red)

NS has taken further control measures, but in the meantime the threat level has risen due to further (chain) digitalisation and cyber threats are increasing, partly due to the hybrid war from Russia, which also targets vital infrastructures.  

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Implementation of the NS Cyber Security Management System (CSMS) and ISO27001 certification on NS Business Card processes.  

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Increased focus on a cyber-safe culture, including through anti-phishing campaigns, NS-wide knowledge sessions and our own Cybersecurity Academy.  

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Cyber ​​roadmap with measures to intrinsically reduce the cyber-vulnerability of NS, based on a secure-by-design set-up and architecture.  

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Further development of human and technological capacity for early detection and follow-up of cyber incidents.  

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Provide management focus by means of a newly developed cybersecurity strategy 2027  

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Practise incident handling, including through participation in national ISIDOOR exercise.  

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Strengthen integrated IT architecture and processes.  

H. Safety:
The risk that NS does not take adequate measures to prevent safety incidents
or inadequately fulfils its duty of care.

2023: D4 (yellow)
2022: D4 (yellow)
2021: B6 (yellow)

NS has 10 safety domains and proactively manages the risks within them. In 2023, the risk management focus was on public safety and cybersecurity. For public safety, the combination of increasing aggression in society and internal staff shortages has resulted in a higher risk profile within this domain.  

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In the area of public safety, NS is working with partners such as ProRail, public bodies, local authorities, the police and other carriers on specific measures. NS depends on other parties in its efforts to solve societal problems. NS is collaborating with relevant government ministries and local authorities.  

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Staff-related and physical measures. Targeted deployment of Security & Service officers and external security guards. Measures coordinated with NS Stations, ProRail and (local) partners. For example, 100% entry checks, night-time closure of stations and modification of station design are additional measures taken at high-risk stations. This makes it easier to implement targeted actions.  

I. Digitalisation:
The risk that the customer relationship deteriorates and that operational agility fails to improve because we do not realise digitalisation projects.

2023: C4 (yellow)
2022: C4 (yellow)
2021: not in top-10 

Insufficient availability of IT personnel and high complexity of IT systems have a negative impact on the acceleration of digitalisation processes.  

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The most important critical systems in train logistics control have been replaced. The large operational legacy systems, including the travel information system and Data Warehouse systems, are in transition for replacement. The (historical) data has been accessed and archived.  

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Strategic plan for recruitment of IT personnel and strategic personnel planning.  

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Internal training programmes for talented data specialists and IT staff have been implemented.  

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Development of effective target architecture and governance is in place.  

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Plan for a digital commercial strategy about, among other things, standardising digital distribution channels.  

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Research and implement new technologies.  

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Further optimise implemented joint steering (business, IT and Data) on realisation of roadmaps and benefits.